Container spot freight rates on major east-west trades continued to diverge this week, with transpacific routes experiencing significant increases, while Asia-Europe rates saw declines. The disparity underscores ongoing challenges for global shippers as 2025 unfolds.
Asia-Europe: Price Wars Emerge
The Loadstar reported the emergence of a freight rate war on Asia-Europe routes, with carriers slashing prices to remain competitive. Maersk has taken an aggressive stance, offering rates below $4,000 per 40ft container for late January shipments, prompting MSC to respond with $3,840 per 40ft.
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) confirms the downward trend:
- Shanghai-Rotterdam rates fell 8% week-on-week to $4,375 per 40ft, a 1% decline compared to last year.
- Shanghai-Genoa rates dropped 4% week-on-week to $5,210 per 40ft, matching last year’s level.
Carriers are aiming to secure bookings for post-Chinese New Year periods, contributing to the steep rate reductions.
Transpacific Routes: Rates Surge
Conversely, transpacific rates from Asia to the US climbed steeply following the resolution of ILA-USMX labor talks. However, the agreement came too late to prevent further increases:
- Shanghai-Los Angeles rates surged 13% week-on-week to $5,476 per 40ft, a 96% year-on-year increase.
- Shanghai-New York rates rose 10% week-on-week to $7,085 per 40ft, up 70% year-on-year.
Xeneta’s platform reported a 26% increase in average spot rates from the Far East to the US East Coast since mid-December. Without the labor resolution, carriers were prepared to impose disruption surcharges of up to $3,000 per 40ft, potentially leading to severe supply chain disruptions.
GRIs and Future Challenges
Further rate increases may be on the horizon, with carriers announcing General Rate Increases (GRIs) of $1,000 to $3,000 per 40ft for February 1 implementation. Despite this, analysts predict a potential softening of spot rate growth in the coming weeks, offering a more optimistic outlook for shippers renegotiating long-term contracts.
However, uncertainties remain:
- The ongoing Red Sea conflict and its impact on global trade routes.
- The return of Donald Trump to the White House, raising fears of a renewed US-China trade war.
While Asia-Europe rates may reflect a weakening global market, shippers must remain vigilant. “Freight rates can quickly spiral upward given current geopolitical and economic challenges,” warned analysts.